Geo-simulation approach to modelling spatial objects and its application to creating thermokarst lake model using remote sensing data | Biota, Climate, Landscapes. 2014. № 2.

Geo-simulation approach to modelling spatial objects and its application to creating thermokarst lake model using remote sensing data

The paper discusses various approaches to modelling complicated objects. As shown The geo-simulation approach is considered to be the most useful for modelling natural objects with spatial properties. The geo-simulation model of the dynamics of these fields is proposed on the basis of experimentally determined statistical properties of the thermokarst lake fields. An analysis of experimental data on the statistical properties of the fields of thermokarst lakes in the area of permafrost in Western Siberia was carried out using remote sensing for measurement of lake areas. The relationship between climatic changes and geo-cryological parameters was studied and a multiple regression equation to take account of temperature and precipitation changes in the model was determined. A geo-simulation software package was developed. This makes it possible to model the dynamics of the thermokarst lake fields, taking into account identified thermokarst and climate changes. The validity of the model and its accuracy in use were tested by comparing model results with experimental remote data. The results can be used for prediction of the thermokarst change dynamics in permafrost.

Download file

Counter downloads: 222

Keywords

geo-simulation modelling, climate changes, geo-simulation software, ther-mokarst lakes, permafrost

Authors

Name	Organization	E-mail
Polishchuk Y.M.	Institute of Petroleum Chemistry, SB RAS	yupolishchuk@gmail.com
Polishchuk V.Y.	Institute of Monitoring Climate and Ecological Systems, SB RAS

Всего: 2

References

Matt A. 2011. Modelling thermokarst lakes dynamics and carbon flux Available online at: http:// www.docstoc.com/docs/35351317/Methods_of_ thermokarst_lakes_modelling.

Viktorov A.S. 2009. Mathematical Models of surface morphology in the geo-ecologic task decision. Presented at the annual session of the Scientific Council on Environmental Geoscience, Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology: Sergeevskie readings. Moscow, 23-24 March. (in Russian)

Victorov A.S. 2006. The main problems of mathematical morphology. Moscow. Nauka. 252. (in Russian)

Polishchuk Yu. M., Polishchuk V.Yu. 2011. Simulation modelling fields of thermokarst lakes in the permafrost // Information Systems and Technology. 1, 53-60. (in Russian)

Trusov P.V. et al. 2005. Introduction to mathematical modelling. / Ed. P. V. Trusov. Moscow. Logos. 440. (in Russian)

Maksimey I.V. 1988. Computer simulation. Moscow. Radio and Communications. 232. (in Russian)

Shannon R. 1978. Simulation systems - the art and science. Moscow. Academic Press. 411. (in Russian)

Schrader Yu. A., Sharov A.A. 1982. Systems and models. Moscow. Radio and communication. 152. (in Russian)

Peschel M. 1981. Modelling of signals and systems. Moscow. Academic Press. 300. (in Russian)

Fleishman B.S., Brusilovsky P.M., Rosenberg G.S. 1982. Methods of mathematical modelling of complex systems / System study. Moscow. Nauka. 65-79. (in Russian)

Moiseev N.N., Svirezhev Yu. M. 1979. System analysis of dynamic processes of the biosphere. Conceptual model of the biosphere. Bulletin of the Academy of Sciences of USSR. 2. 47-54. (in Russian)

Kosolapova L.G., Kovrov B.G. 1988. Evolution of populations: A discrete mathematical modelling. Novosibirsk. Bulletin of the Novosibirsk State University. 93. (in Russian)

Low A.M., Kelton W.D. 2004. Simulation: Classic Computer Science. St. Petersburg-Kiev. Publishing Group BHV. 847. (in Russian)

Berlyant A. M., Zhukov V. T., Tikunov V. S. 1976. Mathematics and cartographic modelling in the "creation - the use of maps"/ Geographical studies at Moscow University. Moscow. Moscow State University Press. 235-243. (in Russian)

Tikunov V.S. 1997. Simulation in cartography: studies for high schools. Moscow. Bulletin of Moscow State University. 405. (in Russian)

Kuzmichenok V.A. 2003. Mathematics and cartographic modelling of possible changes in water resources and glaciers of Kyrgyzstan to climate change. Bulletin of the Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University. 6. 33-41. (in Russian)

Kovalev T.M. 2008. Mathematical modelling of infection foci of tick-borne zoonoses in the Altai region. News of Altai University. 1. 58-62. (in Russian)

Serdutskaya L.F., Yatsishin A.V. 2009. Technoecology: Mathematical and cartographic modelling. Moscow. Publishing house LIBROKOM. 232. (in Russian)

Kulik K.N., Yurofeev V.G. 2010. Computer Mathematics and cartographic modelling agrolesoland-shafts based on aerospace information. Reports of Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences. 1. 5254. (in Russian)

Timonin S.A. 2010. Mathematics and Mapping and GIS modelling of demographic processes in the regions of the Russian Federation. Bulletin of Moscow State University, Ser. 5. Geography. 5 11-18. (in Russian)

Lawson A.B., Denison D.G. 2002. Spatial cluster modeling / Boca Raton-London-New-York. CRC Press / Chapman and Hall. 287.

Wang X. 2005. Integrating GIS, simulation models and visualization in traffic impact analysis. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems. 29. Issue 4. 471-496.

Poh-Chin Lai, Fun-Mun So, Ka-Wing Chan. 2009. Spatial epidemiological approaches in disease mapping and analysis / Boca Raton-London-New-York. CRC Press / Tailor and Francis Group. 184.

Zhao Y., Murayama Y. 2011. Urban dynamics analysis using spatial metrics geosimulation. In book: Y. Murayama, R. Thapa. (Eds.) Spatial analysis and modelling in geographical transformation process. Dordrecht-Heidelberg-New-York-London. (Springer, GeoJournal Library). 100. pp.153-168.

Royle J. A., Dorazio R. M. 2008. Hierarchical modelling and inference in ecology. Oxford. Elsevier Sciences & Technologies. 444.

Lawson A. B. 2009. Bayesian disease mapping: Hierarchical modelling in spatial epidemiology. Boca Raton. London. New-York: CRC Press / Chapman and Hall. 344.

Sang H., Gelfand A.E. 2009. Hierarchical modelling for extreme values observed over space and time. Environmental and ecological statistics. 16(3). 407-426.

Polishchuk Yu.M., Tokareva O.S. 2010. Geosimulation modelling of air pollution zones as a result of the gas burning in oil fields. Information Systems and Technology. 2. 39-46. (in Russian)

Polishchuk V.Y., Bryksina N.A., Dneprovskaya V.P., Polishchuk Y.M. 2009. Analysis of the relationship of climatic and geo-cryologic changes in the permafrost of West Siberia. Presented at the 8 th Siberian conference on climato-ecological monitoring, Tomsk, 8-10 October.

Polishchuk V.Yu, Polishchuk Yu.M. 2012. Remote studies of variability of the shape of coastal boundaries of thermokarst lakes in the permafrost of West Siberia. Study of Earth from space. 1. 61-64. (in Russian)

Wentzel E.S. 2002. Probability theory. Moscow. Vyschaya School. 575. (in Russian)

Kremer N.S. 2003. Theory of probability and mathematical statistics: a textbook for high schools Moscow. UNITY-DANA. 573. (in Russian)

Meteorological reanalysis. 2011. Available online at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorologi-cal_reanalysis. (in Russian)

European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast. 2011. Available online at: http://www.ec-mwf.int

Aphrodite's scope. 2011. Available online at: http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/ scope/index.html

Dneprovskaya V.P., Bryksina N.A., Polishchuk Yu.M. 2009. Study of changes of thermokarst lakes in the area of the discontinuous permafrost in Western Siberia on the base of satellite images. Study of Earth from Space. 4. 88-96. (in Russian)

Smith L. C., Sheng Y., MacDonald G. M., Hinzman L. D. 2005. Disappearing Arctic Lakes. Science. 308(3). 14.

Bryksina N. A., Polishchuk V. Yu., Polishchuk Yu. M. 2009. Study of relationship between climate change and thermokarst processes in the areas of continuous and discontinuous permafrost in Western Siberia. Bulletin of the Yugra State University. 3. 3-12. (in Russian)

Buslenko N. P. 1968. Simulation of complex systems. Moscow. Nauka. 356. (in Russian)

Polishchuk V. Yu. 2013. Software system of dynamics simulation of thermokarst lake fields in permafrost zones. Reports of TUSUR. 1. 125-128. (in Russian)

Polishchuk V. Yu. 2011. Program simulation of space-time structure of the fields of thermokarst lakes. Registered Rospatent - Certificate No. 2011614293. (in Russian)

Polishchuk V. Yu., Polishchuk Yu.M. 2013. Geo-simulation modelling fields of thermokarst lakes in zone of permafrost. Khanty-Mansiysk. Bulletin of Yugra State University. 129. (in Russian)