Criteria for evaluating an index for risk-management of extraordinary situations of various genesis for the territory of the Siberian Federal District

The article analyzes approaches to determining the risk of emergencies, as well as, based on foreign experience in determining the integral risk index (INFORM methodology) of emergencies, the authors propose a modified formula adapted to the conditions of the Siberian Federal District. The INFORM methodology includes about 50 different indicators for measuring hazards and their impact, vulnerability indicators, etc. According to the developers, the INFORM methodology is a convenient comparative analysis tool for identifying the most vulnerable regions, regions, and municipalities. The main advantage of the methodology is the presence of three aspects that cannot be changed, and the categories and components included in the aspects can be. In order to bring the calculation of the integral risk index from emergencies closer to the sphere of natural and technosphere safety, we proposed a modified methodology, which included aspects exclusively related to natural and technosphere safety. The proposed methodology in no way contradicts the INFORM methodology. The values of a number of coefficients are established for the purpose of analyzing the situation for counteracting and mitigating the consequences of emergencies (ES) and natural hazards (NH). The authors have proposed a number of formulas for assessing a number of parameters in the field of natural and technospheric safety. Based on the results of calculating the coefficients, zoning of the subjects of the Siberian Federal District was carried out using map schemes. Among the subjects on the maps, groups of entities with high and low indicators of the integrated risk index, the risk factor for the transition of a natural hazard to an emergency, the coefficient of vulnerability of the population and the territory of the Siberian Federal District from natural and man-made emergencies were identified. According to the data obtained for calculating the risk factor for the transition of a hazardous natural phenomenon to an emergency state, the average maximum value among subjects was identified in the Irkutsk Region - 70.6 /; Novosibirsk region -53.2 %; Omsk region - 67.7%, Kemerovo region - 60.2 %; Republic of Khakassia - 55.6 %. According to the values of the coefficient of protection against natural disasters, the index of insufficiency of the potential for emergency response, the subjects were ranked in tables based on the data obtained. The coefficient of protection against natural disasters showed that the greatest protection against natural disasters is observed in the Tomsk region, Krasnoyarsk Territory, Kemerovo Region. The lowest values of the coefficient of protection, and, accordingly, the least potential of protection against disasters, are observed in the Republic of Tyva, Altai Territory, the Republic of Buryatia, Transbaikal Territory. According to the index of insufficiency of emergency response potential, the greatest potential for emergency response in the subjects was noted in the Tomsk Region, Krasnoyarsk Territory, Kemerovo Region, Omsk Region.

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