The technique of aging in demographyand its applications.
The direct and reverse techniques of aging are offered. The basic characteristics determiningdistribution of probabilities of population groups for the techniques of aging are found.The base equation for the direct technique of aging is 1( , ) ( , ) ( )( )N x t N x t S x S x - Ґу - Ґу - Ґу = - Ґе , where N(x,t) is known and N(x-,t-) is estimation of value of population group with age x- in year t-, S(x) is a survival function, Ґе1 is random error with MҐе1 = 0 .The equation for the reverse technique of aging is obtained: 2( , ) ( , ) ( )( )N x t N x t S x S x − Ґу − Ґу − Ґу = - Ґе , where N(x,t) is known and N(x-,t-) is estimation of value of population group with age x- in year t-, S(x) is a survival function, Ґе2 is random error with MҐе2 = 0 . High enough accuracy of these estimations is shown.The estimation of human losses of the Russian Federation within Great Patriotic War usingdata of population censuses in the 1939 and in the 1959 and the direct and reverse techniques of aging is executed.
Keywords
метод передвижки, численность населения, The technique of aging, populationAuthors
Name | Organization | |
Nazarov Anatoly A. | Tomsk State University | nazarov@fpmk.tsu.ru |
Nosova Maria G. | Tomsk State University | nosova_mg@mail.ru |
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