Murders in Russia: method for determining latency of an array

The article proposes the method for calculation of latent array of murders, which is based on identifying the blocks of statistical arrays allocated according to various criteria, united by common probability of the existence within them of criminal deaths, as well as on the expert assessments for the determination of their share in the presented arrays. When graduation such arrays were allocated three pieces of information When grading such arrays, three blocks of data were allocated. In the first block the arrays of data about unknown corpses, about missing persons and those not found were analyzed; the second block contained the data on suicides; the third block was a multi-element one. It consists of the arrays containing data about the occurrence of deaths from other external causes recorded in statistics, as well as arrays in which the cause of death of persons is officially registered as a natural one. On the basis of the methods of statistical analysis, expert assessment; studying of documents, the specific weight of latent murders in each of the above arrays of data was determined. For example, in the first block the share of latent murders varies from 18 to 60% depending on the type of statistical array. In the second block the specific weight of latent murders is 5%; for arrays of the third block variability of a share of the studied type of murders is from 0,5 to 9%. The article gives a detail description of the method for calculation of a specific weight of latent murders in different statistical arrays and shows how, having concrete statistical arrays and knowing a share of latent murders for each of them, it is possible to receive a cumulative absolute indicator that defines an annual volume of the latent array of murders. In the final part, the author offers a method for calculating the array of latent murders as a table, which is a methodical tool to determine the annual volume of the required array without intermediate calculations. Moreover, the definition for the specified absolute indicator is possible both when using the data in one particular year and average values of any period in which all of the parameters used in the analysis are similar. The calculations cover the period of 2014-2017 for which average values of the considered statistical arrays were calculated. Having calculated a share of latent murders for each specified array and added them together, the average annual volume of the array of latent murders, which Knowledge of the actual level of murders and the use of the proposed method for its determination can change the approach to identify latent murders and, consequently, would increase their real registered level, and, hence, the level of real response from law enforcement agencies. Besides, the presented assessment allows looking at the array of latent murders from a different angle, to analyze progress in combating crimes against life more adequately.

Keywords

Authors

References