To stay with the dying empire? (Cognitive-discursive model of Russias future)

Nowadaysthe problem of future has emerged with the utmost urgency. Faced with the complexities andchallenges of the times, much effort has gone into the development of models and scenarios throughwhich to comprehend the future of our country and to guide the navigation of policy-makers. In theworld of forecasts the object of our analysis is political predictions, with the political system andpolitical processes being its main targets. The advantage of the cognitive approach is the ability todetermine mental schemes or cognitive models underlying any political text. The structure and contentof these cognitive models are important to effectively study the mode of thinking of those whorepresent political and non-political institutions in a particular historical period; they also allow tobuild predictive models in political science.The discussed approach (cognitive-discursive future studies) is supposed to be a systemic junctionof theories and conceptions of future suggested in philosophy, future studies, political science andpolitical linguistics. Using tools of future studies and cognitive linguistics, this approach studiesmodels of future, which are based on exploratory forecasts made by authors of political texts.The metamodel used in this approach is a matrix "methodology of forecasting and historicalmodels" covering the evolution of various parameters of Russian socio-political system. A cognitivediscursivemodel is used as a tool to get the idea of possible options for future development of thesociety, helps to better understand the driving forces that shape it.The main force abroad that forms the image of Russia and its possible political future is Russiansensitivemass media. The process of constructing the metamodel (which in fact is a system ofparameters) includes creating a conceptual model of political future, its basic components beingdomestic and foreign policies. Basic parameters (domestic policy and foreign policy), in their turn, canbe divided into subsets (factors most frequently addressed in mass media when referring to the imageof Russian future): politico-economic situation, population, natural resources, armed forces, relationswith the USA, relations with Europe, relations with CIS ("the near abroad"), relations with Asiancountries.The present article deals with the problem of modelling Russia's future in political discourse. Thematerial for the analysis is "Russia Crumbles" from the National Review (April 20, 2007), which"predicts" the way our country will be developing in the first quarter of the 21st century. The paperpresents a scenario, which is meant for further conceptual analysis of the model. It also gives a detaileddescription of basic components and their subsets, and analyses linguistic means used to create theimage of pessimistic future.

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