Metaphor in modeling the future: the best-case scenario (based on political discourses of Russia, the USA and Great Britain, the 21st century)

Nowadays the problem of the future has merged with an utmost u^ncy. In Ше wc>rld of forecasts the (abject of the аnalysis is political predictions, with the pditical systеm and pditical processes bеing its mаin tаrgets. Linguistiс polit^l prognostics is a nеw synfcsis of thеories and concеptions of the future pro-posеd in future studiеs, politicаl sciencе and cogn^^ linguistiсs. The pаper presents a piecе of the аuthor's аpproach to studying mcdels of Russiа's futurе in contemporary Russian, American and British political discourses with the hеlp of mеthods and tods of linguist^ politiсal prognostiсs. The material for the analysis comprises 3000 contexts in each of the three discourses. Methods used for its collecting are continuous and representative sampling. The scope of the present research is political texts of Russian, American and British mass media. The period analyzed is 2000-2014. The synchronic аnalysis аllows both the аuthor and the аudience to lock through the tеxt at the pаrt of the "present reality" tat fes bеhind this tеxt and at Ше modеl of the future construed in it. Any scеnario describеs two altеrnative futurеs, the bеst-case scеnario and the worst-casе scenario. The paper briefly descr^s the bеst-case scenarios of Russiа's futurе in Russiаn, Americаn and British discou^s and most frequеnt typеs of progдosticаting pditical tеxts dеpicting bеst-casеscеnarios in the Шгее discoursеs. The paper deals with the peculiarities of Russia's future representation, as well as with the general activity of metaphorical units (correlation of metaphorical and non-metaphorical verbalization of Russia's future), correlation of "common" and "bright" metaphors, the number of metaphorical models fixed in this or that discourse, peculiarities of dominant metaphorical models potraying Russia's future as HOME, PATH, INANIMATE NATURE, as well as orientational metaphors in the political discourses of Russia, the United States and Great Britain. The author comes to a conclusion that in political discourses of the three countries the best-case scenario is quite of an occasional character. The best-case variant of the future is dim and vague. It is primarily realised within non-metaphorical contexts or with the help of "common" metaphors. The author pays special attention to the predictive potential of political metaphors and shows how the political metaphor organises the prognosticating political text, specifies its direction and focuses on the best-end scenario. The metaphor functions as a constitutive element of the forecast, connects its parts and linguistic components (tense and aspect forms of notional verbs, modal verbs and expressions, rhetorical questions, intertexts, means of emotive syntax, etc), incorporates them into an organic unity.

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