The foreign policy of Belarus (1992-2017): a small state at the geostrategic break

The paper focuses on the post-Soviet history of Belarusian foreign policy through the lens of its relations with Russia. It aims at finding out which of the foreign policy strategies tested by Belarus has been the most adequate to its national interests. The paper's significance consists in the application of the concepts developed by the international relations theory with the purpose of explaining the foreign policies of "small states" to the analysis of the foreign policy of Belarus as a small state indirectly involved in the conflict between Russia and the EU. The authors evaluate the consequences of Minsk foreign policy for the future relations between Russia and Belarus. The research employs the neorealist theory of international relations and uses the methods of political description, observation, analysis of documents and political discourse. The authors distinguish three periods of the post-Soviet Russian - Belarusian relations. In 1991-1993, Belarus sought a military-political neutrality. After 1994, the foreign policy of Belarus was founded on the military-political alliance and economic integration with Russia. Despite all the problems and contradictions, this policy was pursued until 2014. In 2014-2017, with the sharp deterioration in relations between Russia and the West, Belarus shifted to the policy of manoeuvring between Russia and the EU. Although this policy brings tactical gains to Belarus, the authors argue that it does not contribute to the long-term national interests of the country and is fraught with serious risks for Belarusian statehood. The research suggests a hypothesis that in higher-risk national situations the strategic choice of small states can deviate to riskier foreign policy patterns. The authors predict the increased estrangement between Russia and Belarus and exacerbated contradictions in bilateral relations.

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