Henry Kissinger's approaches to the 2014–2023 Ukrainian crisis

Based on the material of articles and speeches by Henry Kissinger in the period from 2014 to 2023, the author makes an attempt to systematize his approaches and views on the Ukrainian crisis. After a brief introduction, the author proceeds to analyze Kissinger's views on the causes of the conflict and his vision of possible ways to resolve it. The article defines the concept of Ukraine as a "bridge" state between the West and Russia, proposed by Kissinger in 2014, and highlights the evolution of his views on the non-aligned status of Ukraine over the course of the conflict. The author notes that initially Kissinger maintained a moderate position towards the Ukrainian crisis. So he believed that Ukraine should not join NATO, but at the same time it should be able to form its government in accordance with the will of the Ukrainian people and join any economic unions, including the European Union. After the start of the Russian special military operation, he changed his views. An analysis of his article "How to Avoid a New World War" published in December 2022 in the British magazine The Spectator, allowed the author to come to the conclusion that Kissinger put forward a combined approach to the Ukrainian crisis. In particular, he proposed that Ukraine give up the territories occupied by Russian troops until February 24, 2022, in exchange for the possibility of joining NATO. At the same time, he urged the West not to seek to inflict a military defeat on Russia in Ukraine, as this could lead to the collapse of the entire international security system due to the inability to predict the consequences of this defeat inside Russia. Along with this, Kissinger, in his approach to the Ukrainian crisis, expressed concern about the rapid development of military technology as an additional trigger for disrupting global stability. The active use of high-tech means during the conflict in Ukraine (combat drones, hypersonic weapons), according to Kissinger, requires the creation of a separate narrative for negotiations. The author comes to the conclusion that the evolution of the views of Kissinger's reaction to the Ukrainian crisis is linked to the possibility of its expansion, which could potentially lead to a new world war, which requires considerable flexibility and willingness to conduct diplomatic negotiations at any stage of the conflict to avoid. The author declares no conflicts of interests.

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