Mathematical methods in historical science: formation of cliometrics in historiography in the second half of the 20th century

The article is centered around methodological changes in the historical science of the 20th century. In particular, it deals with the heritage of the Annales school, the methodology of which gave a start to the development of the idea of interdisciplinary synthesis. Special attention is paid to a new direction based on using mathematical methods called cliometrics. A broad mastering of interdisciplinary methodology in the second half of the 20th century became a basis of ''new historical science'' inside of which such new interdisciplinary disciplines as psychohistory, ''modern social history'', history of mentalities, every day history, ''female'' history, gender history, were formed. At the same time, using the idea of interdisciplinary synthesis became possible not only in the context of interaction of humanities and social sciences, but also by means of using exact sciences, including mathematics in historical research. A striking example of the processes is cliometrics (in other words, quantitative history), based on application of mathematical methods, computer models and programs in historical researches. Within this article the greatest interest was caused by the development of native (Soviet) and American ''modern economic history''. As a result, the history of formation of quantitative history is considered, the role and value of cliometrics in historical science is shown. Thus, for example, in our country the activity of using quantitative methods in historical researches was carried out under Academician I.D. Kovalchenko. Being the founder of the new direction, Kovalchenko became the main initiator of creation of seminars, groups, and commissions on application of mathematical methods and computers in historical researches (1979-1994). Among the prominent representatives of ''quantitative history'' in the USA the greatest interest was caused by scientific researches of R. Fogel, D. North, S. Engerman. It should be added that American cliometrics was actively engaged in historical modeling, preferring to use so-called ''alternative'' models of historical processes: designing artificial phenomena and situations, and then comparing these models with the real historical phenomena and giving assessment of its historical development. It is necessary to recognize that the quantitative history has always had a huge scientific potential. At the same time, its claims for creating general, universal methodology of history are insolvent owing to the fact that historical processes cannot be studied exclusively by means of mathematics.

Keywords

Authors

References