The value of prognostic information for reduction of losses from frosts in Tomsk Oblast

Providing the population with food, agriculture determines the country's national security. The level of agricultural development is largely determined by climate and weather conditions. The use of hydrometeorological information, especially of prognostic one, is an important factor in increasing the production of agricultural production and reducing losses in years of bad harvest. Losses in the economy and the social sphere can be reduced with employing scientific methods on the use of actual and forecast data of the environment, if consumers of this information will apply protective measures in advance and constantly implement economic measures basing on the expected weather. The economic questions of impact of frost for two regions of Tomsk Oblast (Tomsk and Kolpashevo areas) with the use of modern approaches on the meteorological and agrometeorological data were examined. Contingency matrices of the prognostic and of the actual information on frosts as well as matrices of losses are obtained on the basis of the prognostic and of the actual data on frosts for 1999-2011 and climate characteristics. Basing on the obtained data the evaluation of the average annual losses was made. Conclusions were drawn on the choice of the optimal strategy of minimization of the average loss from frost in the region. Three strategies were considered: 1 - daily protective measures, 2 - no use of the information and no taking protective measures, 3 - orientation and reliance on frost forecasts. The following conclusions were made. 1. The selection of the climatic strategy depends on the economic characteristics of the company - the cost of protective measures (C) and loss values (L), as well as on the coefficient of non-prevented losses (s). 2. Choosing the strategy also depends on the climatic and meteorological characteristics: climatic repeatability of frosts and reliability of frost forecasts (P). 3. Orientation to the prognostic information about frosts in Tomsk Oblast can significantly reduce the average losses from them: the cardinal measures of protection (e = 0) give about seven and eleven times better effect in comparison with the second and the first strategies respectively. For e = 0.4 (which is real in agriculture) the loss reduction is two and four times respectively. 4. In order to minimize the average losses for most companies it is advisable to use operational methodical forecasts. The higher the accuracy of forecasts, the more applicable and effective they are for economic managers. The calculations refer to the strategy of the companies against frost. They can be applied to other industries with regard to their features.

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