ISIS in Central Asia: Middle East Analogies and Regional Features

This study compares the prerequisites and basic factors of regional security in the Middle Eastern and Central Asian subsystems of international relations. The authors attempt to estimate the probability of a repeat of Middle Eastern scenarios and such phenomena and processes as the Arab Spring and ISIS in the Central Asian space. The article suggests the logic of the escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts in the context of national, regional and international processes. A comparative analysis of the sustainability of state structures of the Middle Eastern and Central Asian countries is carried out. The role of the regions in foreign policy concepts of global and regional actors is given. In particular, the current development of Central Asia is characterized by a persistent low level of socioeconomic development and, as a result, unemployment, poverty, criminalization of various spheres, corruption. The low quality of the work of state institutions is also recorded. The revival of the clan system, the growth of radical nationalistic and religious attitudes and the strengthening of authoritarian political regimes in the countries of the region are having a negative impact. The authors believe that despite the chronic nature of social and economic problems, the region manages to maintain relative social stability and stay free from a critical mass of radicalization, primarily in the youth environment. Short-term prospects for the formation of a center of instability in the Central Asian subsystem of international security with the participation of radical groups are unlikely. The countries of Central Asia manage to level out the aggravation of social contradictions with the help of external factors: economic assistance from the Russian Federation and the PRC and keeping open channels for labor migration. During the years of independence, the Central Asian countries succeeded in developing their own models of the state control system, which demonstrate the stability and step-by-step strengthening of state institutions. Positive dynamic stability between major world and regional players, extensive network of interstate institutions in the field of security and economic development provide conducive military-political and socioeconomic conditions for the development of Central Asia. In addition, the authors note the overassessment of the "Afghan factor" in the context of the supporting of security in Central Asia and also warn about the complication of public security because of religious extremism for recipient countries of labor migrants. Among the most unpredictable security positions at the national level is the difficult situation in Tajikistan, where it is not yet possible to form a workable economic and sociopolitical model of the country's development.

Keywords

Authors

References