The planning of export shipments to countries with high quantitative changes of population based on migration flowmathematical modeling

The global economic cooperation process is becoming more complicated for Russian exporters who have to face the problemsof acquiring new markets and maintaining the present one. Companies are forced to create new methods of controlling and restructuringof their material and financial resources in order to achieve their best performance. Considering these factors the tobacco industry is notan exception. International health organizations together with governments of many countries unite to create a strong anti-tobacco policyand prevent cigarette producers from distributing their product. That is why tobacco companies tend to carefully plan their strategy. They tryto take into account as many factors, influencing the market, as they can. One of them is market volume. It can supply the producer withimportant information, help to estimate the probable result and choose the best tactic. The article describes the basic equation that is used bytobacco producers in calculating the volume of an aimed market using information about population, smoking rate factor, daily cigaretteconsumption by one smoker, time period and variable coefficient. The first four factors are usually defined statistically or evaluated accordingto experience. The variable factor is difficult to estimate due to dynamic changes in the market status. In this case cigarette companiesapply to third party organizations which gather and analyze the required and often unreachable data. The Republic of Abkhazia, being anexample in the present article, is a popular touristic region. This means that in order to calculate the market volume equation and apply thevariable factor tobacco producers have to consider the migration process, which is not constant, but periodical. The graph that shows theyearly migration flow in and out of Abkhazia is presented and based on the customs statistics. It gives the possibility to see the populationdynamics and calculate an accurate market volume at any period of time. As a result, tobacco producers can plan their export activities andshipments very carefully in order to maximize their efficiency, increase sales, avoid out-of-stock situations and satisfy the market needs.The main tool in this case is to create a non-stop circular process of material and financial resources transformation and maintain a constantproduct presence in distribution and outlet chains. In addition to that the company has the ability to improve its inner market sales rate bygiving an opportunity to find the preferred product anywhere outside the local region for the consumer.

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