Forecasting regional short-period climate anomalies

According to the model calculations, oil spills on the most energy-activepart of the Atlantic Oceans surface caused a serious change of the ocean  atmosphere system thermal conditions. Overheated frontierocean layers (the near-surface air and the surface water ones) can cause formation of specific anomalous overheated convection streams,which, in its turn, maintains the heat spot in the middle and upper troposphere (thermodynamic conditions for anticyclones formation).The breach of the natural heat and mass exchange on the oceans surface resulted in the formation of multiple hurricanes and tornados,instead of cyclones, above the Gulf of Mexico and, alongside with vast anticyclones, above the North Atlantic. Long-term air heatingabove the spread polluted water surface together with the water deficit in the atmosphere could cause Rossby waves stabilization aboveEastern Europe and climate anomaly with an anomalously hot summer. A stable anticyclone in Central Europe (as well as in Russia)became a barrier on the way of the cyclones from the North Atlantic and the Western part of the Arctic Ocean. As a result, precipitationfell on a limited area of the Western and Northern Europe causing floods there. The next few years will show a similar tendency. Moreover,due to the Gulf Streams degradation winters in North-Eastern Europe will become colder, with ice-covers on the commonly nonfreezingBarents and Norwegian Seas. The conducted studies allow theoretical calculation estimation of water-heat balance characteristicsat the water  atmosphere frontier when polluted spots are formed in the near-surface air layer for different climatic regions. Atpresent it is possible to a) obtain quantitative and qualitative conclusions on the degree of influence of technogenic factors of the oceanand inland seas pollution on the heat flow and water balance of different parts of the land; b) analyse the influence of technogenicchanges on the regional level in order to estimate the probability of possible scenarios of climatic changes. These calculations can becomea basis for forecasting the consequences of climatic anomalies of technogenic origin. Thus, according to the model scenario, in thenext few years there exists a risk of a disastrous oil spill on the surface of the Caspian Sea, which can cause a climatic anomaly in theadjacent regions. The breadbasket of Russia, Kuban and Stavropol territories, will have a drought over vast areas. In the Caucasus theprobability will be high of mountain glaciers numerous motions, of disastrous overflows and mud torrents. The number of hurricanesand tornadoes will rise sharply in the foothill districts of the Caucasus and in Northern Iran.

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