Dangerous meteorological phenomena as a constituent of natural risk(by example of the south of Tomsk Region)

The safety of humansand environment, the rate of their protection from the impact of technological, natural and social factors are an indispensable conditionof the stable development of the society. Over thirty types of dangerous natural phenomena are revealed on the territory of Russia, but50-70% of their total damage falls on dangerous weather. It has been established that in Russia, as well as worldwide, dangerous meteorological events (DE) are growing in number increasing annually by 6.3-7% on the average. The most frequently recurring DE are connectedwith stormy and hurricane winds (24.5%), very heavy precipitation (15.3%) and others. In Russia, the greatest number of DE is observedin the Siberian Federal Area including Tomsk Region. According to the research by Shakhramanyan et al. (1998), technologicalemergencies, inundations, fires are of greatest hazard to the population of the region. There are no data on analyses and records for otherDE. The present paper considers two types of DE, i.e. heavy winds and rain showers creating dangerous situations - weather risks. Theanalysis of different data has proved that on the territory of the south of Tomsk Region the quantity of heavy wind cases increased by nearly30% within recent 30-35 years. Heavy winds are often accompanied by blasts when the wind velocity reaches 30 m/sec (July 15, 1997).Heavy winds cause significant damage to the regional economy. Intense and continuous precipitation is one of the most harmful DE. Thesource of intense rainfall activity is formed above the territory of the Tomsk Region. Here, on the average, 46-51% of precipitation persummer falls in the form of rain showers (≥ 10 mm per twenty-four hours), and the number of days with showers varies from 6 to 13. Asmuch as 80.5 mm of precipitation may fall during a rain shower (Tomsk, 1994). Showers, as well as incessant rains, promote the river levelrise, the flooding of residential areas, and cause damage to the rural and municipal economy. Thus, the soil loss from the cropland mayrange 40-100 m2/hectare (1987). According to experts' estimation, in the middle of the 21st century, on the significant part of Russia's territory,the increase by 2-6% should be expected in cases of intense precipitation. Hence, the south of Tomsk Region is subjected to DE,among which heavy winds and shower rains cause the most significant damage. They often accompany each other (the so-called complexmeteorological phenomena), thus strengthening the negative effect on all aspects of the human economic activity. The monitoring of thesephenomena is gaining great significance in the conditions of the observed climate change.

Keywords

Authors

References