Use of prognostic WRF model for weather forecasting in Tomsk region

The work is devoted to the contemporary WRF models for weatherforecasting. The model is implemented on the supercomputer SKIF-Cyberia of the Computational Centre of Tomsk State University.Using the computer, the parameterisation of physical processes was chosen and the results of calculation were visualised. The firstresults on the test of the WRF model in real terms for the territory of Tomsk region were obtained. The results of the forecast in the formof meteorological fields are represented as coloured areas. Each area is a certain range of values. Temperature and pressure in Tomskregion for different seasons, especially for cases involving adverse weather events, were predicted. We also studied the forecast zones ofheavy precipitation in the summer period. For each of the synoptic cases the WRF program calculated data several times. With each newstart-up parameters varied. By the successfully modelled calculations the accuracy of weather forecasting at stations in Tomsk,Alexandrovskoe, Kolpashevo and Pudino was estimated by the average and mean square errors. We obtained the following results.1. Implementation of the WRF weather forecast models in Tomsk region showed good prospects for its use in various weather,including adverse and dangerous weather events. 2. The calculated characteristics of the accuracy of the model can be consideredsatisfactory. 3. For the warm season best accuracy of the forecasts is achieved by the use of the following set of parameterisations ofphysical processes: microphysics - WRF scheme with 5 classes of hydrometeors (WSM5); long- and short-wave radiation - RRTMGscheme; surface layer - Janjic similarity scheme; underlying surface - Noah LSM scheme; planetary boundary layer - Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) scheme; clouds - Betts-Miller scheme. 4. For the cold season the best were the same parameterisations, but the differenceis in the inclusion of the snow cover (ifsnow = 1). 5. In the calculations the transfer of heat and moisture from the surface (isfflx = 1),the clouds in the calculation of radiation (icloud = 1) were taken into account, the number of layers in the soil is equal to five(num_soil_layers). 6. Predicting summer meteoparameters showed the best result. 7. The work must be continued for the study ofpossibilities of WRF models to forecast weather elements. The work is of interest to improve the mezoscale weather forecast onterritories similar in physical-geographical conditions.

Keywords

Authors

References