Prognostic information value for reduction of losses from frost in Tomsk region

One of the important tasks ofthe National Weather Service is to improve the functioning of the economy through optimal use of hydro-meteorological information.Along with the variety of climatic characteristics real weather and forecast data are broadly used that can help optimize the activities ofenterprises. We calculated the average loss due to frost in Tomsk region, and the possibility of using operational forecasts of spring frostin order to choose the optimal strategy for agriculture. It is shown that the use of operational forecasts of frosts can significantly reducelosses in comparison with climate data. The optimal strategy to minimize the average loss due to the use of climate and forecast data onthe frosts in the air and soil was examined. In this paper, calculations were performed for the normalised loss when only climateinformation (for the two climate strategies) was used, taking into account the operational forecasts of spring frosts. As the main climaticcharacteristics long-term repeatability of frosts for two periods was taken: the period of the beginning of the vegetation period, and theactive growing season. The average normalised losses were calculated when choosing permanent protection neglect as a strategy ofconstant protections from frosts. Based on the actual data of frost in Tomsk region for the period from 1999 to 2008 the normalised losswas calculated in case of using specialised forecasts of spring frosts. Such economic features of the enterprise as the cost of protectivemeasures against frost (C) and the loss from them (L), as well as the coefficient of the non-preventing losses (ƒ), were used. The climaticfrequency of frosts and the accuracy of frosts forecasts were also considered. We obtained the following conclusions. 1. The choice ofthe strategy depends on the considered economic characteristics of each company and meteorological characteristics: frequency of frostsand climate of frosts forecasts. The higher the accuracy of forecasts, the more applicable and effective the forecast is for manycompanies. 2. Using the optimal strategy based on reliable prognostic information can reduce losses from frost for nearly all consumersby 2-4 times or more. 3. With other equal conditions, average losses increase with the ratio C/L and the value of the coefficient of nonpreventedlosses of ƒ. As part of economy the role of meteorological resources is important. It is therefore necessary to further developthe theoretical and practical ideas in the economic and agrometeorological calculations.

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