Use of cluster analysis for assessing heat and moisture during active vegetationin south of Western Siberia and its relation to T.G. Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient

In today's changing climate,agricultural companies of Western Siberia are interested in finding a modern methodology for assessing agro-climatic conditions andsolutions to problems of zoning, with the subsequent optimization of agro-climatic resources used. For solving these tasks, the problemof estimating the temperature and humidity conditions of the area is researched. This research examines the subject of territorial zoningon a more qualitative and modern level, based on the automatic systematization of the mean values of the fields of SHC (SelyaninovHydrothermal Coefficient) using hierarchical cluster analysis. The paper presents an analysis of the spatial index values of SHC, whichwere subjected to clustering followed by obtaining versions for classification. The resulting variations were subjected to statisticaltesting of the classification, with application of quality criteria for choosing a real and meaningful classification. The statisticalevaluation of the quality of the variants identified the more correct number of classes, namely, zoning and site assessment according tothree classes, which subsequently had a similarity with the well-known classification of SHC for production of temperature-humidityconditions assessment of the territory. It turned out that the conditions with increased values of temperature and humidity belong to thefirst class, the second class expresses conditions of optimum moisture content, and the third - insufficient one. Also, the classes receivedquasi-latitudinal distribution in space and this picture corresponds to the distribution of the SHC index of the territory. After theconducted research with hierarchical cluster analysis application the objective method helped to create a scientifically basedclassification complying with the already known, physically based scale of SHC classification. Besides, the presented method of clusteranalysis, allowed us to save computation time and to compress the information, which is an important factor in usage of large data sets.In general, by the results of predictive assessment of climate warming, with the condition of SHC index changing, we can assume thatthe boundaries of agro-climatic zones, classified by the combination of heat and humidity, would migrate away to the northern andeastern territories, but more southern areas would often be subjected to droughts of different intensities. Thereby, while the currenttrends of climate changing are persevered, during the next 100-200 years the south of Western Siberia has all the prerequisites forincreasing of agro-climatic potential, which is due to the northern and eastern areas.

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