Weather anomaly in Tomsk region during summer 2012 as a reflection of the current global climate

According to the data weather center in Tomsk anomalous heat waves were observed in the period from May 30 to August 2, which does not have analogues over the past 60 years in Tomsk region. Information on meteorological conditions is presented. These conditions formed weather anomaly in Tomsk region during the summer of 2012. The character of losses incurred by region's economy is described. Many industries had damages from the heat waves, such as river transport, fisheries and forestry. Throughout the territory region there were forest and peat fires. The most difficult situation was in rural areas such as Verkhneketskiy, Teguldetskiy and Kargasok areas. During the period of emergency there were registered 518 forest fires in the area over 1000 km . During the period from June to August forest fires in the area and neighboring regions formed high level of air pollution by combustion products. Satellite photos show the smoke which extends to villages and the city of Tomsk. Smoke was accompanied by a decrease visibility and deteriorating air quality. Analysis of daily data of air temperature, precipitation and Selyaninov's coefficient allowed to classify the weather conditions taking into account heat and moisture. In summer 2012 the average Selyaninov's coefficient was the smallest in Tomsk region in the last 50 years. Thus, the considered conditions can be characterized as a season of drought of mean intensity. The closest to 2012 by hydrothermal conditions was a drought of low intensity in 1981 and 1999 - the mode of insufficient moisture. The weather conditions accelerated the emergence of a large population of insect pests, by mid-July damage to the plants was noted at 50% of the area. The actual contribution of adverse agrometeorological conditions of this period in shortage of harvest crops was at least 50%. Analysis of meteorological conditions and synoptic situation showed that the extreme mode of summer 2012 in Tomsk region is the occasional combination of adverse weather conditions and their duration. In the next few years repeating the described conditions in Russia is expected with high probability. It confirms the presence of a ratio between the increasing blocking and activation of the solar activity. The drought is an essential part of the climate in Tomsk region. For constructing effective predictors for seasonal forecast of abnormal weather conditions in the south of Western Siberia to continue such kind of the research is needed. Agricultural companies in Tomsk region must concern more responsibly to official long-term weather forecast, and the regional weather center must give quality information to these weather forecasts.

Keywords

Authors

References