The regularities of temporary changes in runoff in the high water period of the Arpa River basin in the context of stable development

The high water period is one of the main stages of the water regime of the rivers of the Arpa basin. Annually it is formed due to meltwater, rain and groundwater and is observed in the form of a well-defined wave. During the high water period, a significant part of the annual runoff passes through the rivers of the studied territory, 57-69 %. At the same time, the maximum flow of water is mainly observed during this period. Therefore, for the stable development of the economy, the role and importance of the assessment of the dynamics of runoff in the high water period, especially in the context of global climate change, is very great. In the work, the main physico-geographical factors determining the runoff of the high water period were studied, the regularities of the time distribution of the runoff of the high water period were discussed, analyzed and evaluated. For this purpose, the results of actual observations of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Armenia "Service for Hydrometeorology and Active Impact on Atmospheric Phenomena", available literature sources were collected, processed and analyzed. Currently, only 9 water measuring stations are in the basin, and their data were used. Methods used in the work: mathematical-statistical analysis, method of comparison, extrapolation and correlation. Due to the diversity of the natural conditions of the study area, the runoff of the high water period is distributed very unevenly. The average total layer of runoff in the high water period of the rivers of the Arpa basin varies over a wide range - from 117 mm to 563 mm. The high water period in the river basin on average begins in late March - early April and ends in late June - early July. The length of the wet season ranges from 2.5-3.5 months. The value of the coefficient of variation of the runoff layer of the high water period varies within 0.29-0.53, the asymmetry coefficient varies from 0.2 to 1.9. In the study area in 1969, 1987, 1988, 2007, the runoff of the high water period was the largest in terms of the runoff among observations of all previous years, and 1961, 1998, 1999 and 2001 were the lowest. It turned out that in the Arpa river basin the distribution of the high-water runoff layer mainly corresponds to the distribution of the norms of winter and spring precipitation, mainly there is a tendency to decrease in the high flow period and the amount of winter precipitation, and an increase in temperature. The latter is the result of both human activity and climate change. So, it is necessary to plan, develop and implement appropriate activities and programs to mitigate and adopt the effects of climate change.

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