Fire hazard in forests of the Tomsk region: climatic factor and economic risks

Dangerous fire elements are forest fires, which annually cause enormous damage of a social and economic nature. The territory of the Tomsk region is located in the taiga zone of Western Siberia; the forestry industry is one of the leading in the economic complex. For the period 2012-2019 here more than 20 thousand hectares of forest plantations died from fires. In this regard, the climatic assessment of trends in conditions favorable to the occurrence of fires in specific territories is of considerable scientific and practical interest. The purpose of this work is to assess climatic changes in meteorological factors for the Tomsk station affecting the potential for a fire, and an economic interpretation of the events taking place. To assess the fire hazard, special indicators (indices) have been developed, which take into account, first of all, the temperature and humidity conditions of the time period. In our study, the CI indicator (complex indicator) is used. The fire hazard is the higher, the higher the CI value. The economic indicators of the degree of adaptation of the forest complex to modern climatic conditions are estimated. The conditions at Tomsk station during rainless periods during fire hazardous seasons (April - September) from 1924 to 2015 were considered. Determined rainless periods and their characteristics - the beginning and end, the duration of the period without precipitation, air temperature (average and maximum), minimum relative humidity and wind speed (average and maximum). Analysis of the fire hazard index revealed an increase in the fire hazard of forests in Tomsk over the past 90 years. There is a statistically significant increase in the number of days with meteorological conditions that create preconditions for the occurrence of forest fires. During the warm half of the year, the sum of the flammability indices increased significantly. The number of days with a high forest fire hazard has increased and the number of days with a low fire hazard has decreased. The presented quantitative indicators of the fire hazardous season confirm a certain influence of the climatic factor on the frequency of forest fires in the region. In unfavorable fire-hazardous seasons, an important role is played by the technical component (equipment and technical means) and technological equipment (methods of work, rules of procedure) of forestry organizations. With the existing natural recurrence of fires in the region, the necessary conditions for improving economic indicators are a decrease in the cost of forest protection measures and a decrease in the coefficient of unforeseen losses.

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