Analysis of the dynamics of temporal characteristics of the seasons of the year in the arctic tundra of the West Siberian plain under the conditions of global climate change

At present, the Arctic regions are receiving increased attention from the country's leadership because of the importance of these territories not only for ensuring Russia's geopolitical and geo-economic positions in the world, but also for its internal development [Arctika..., 2020]. The paper considers regional peculiarities of the dynamics of temporal characteristics (start and end dates, duration) of the seasons of the year under global climate change on the basis of natural seasonal climatic rhythmics established by the complex-genetic method. The analysis is based on daily surface air temperature data from the VNIIGMI-MCD database and the pogodaiklimat.ru website for the period from 1934 to 2020 for the M.V. Popov weather station (Bely Island, Arctic tundra). The annual seasonal structure of the annual cycle was determined using valid criteria and the temporal characteristics of climatic rhythms were calculated. The obtained materials, in accordance with the objectives of the study, were grouped into four periods: the first - from 1934 to 2020, the second - from 1934 to 1979, the third - from 1980 to 2020, the fourth -from 2001 to 2020. Each of the periods has its own dynamic features in the course of temperatures, reflecting their regional trends against the background of global changes. Regularities of temporal dynamics of thermal regime and climatic indicators of seasonal rhythms were studied by methods of mathematical statistics. The analysis of changes in mean monthly and annual surface air temperatures during the 86-year period showed that the climate in the Arctic zone of the West Siberian Plain (WSP) in the conditions of global change began to change towards warming starting from 1980 and especially rapidly since the beginning of the 2000s. Temperature growth led to a shift in the boundaries and duration of seasons. Thus, the summer and spring seasons began to begin earlier than in the first period (from 1934 to 1979), and the winter and spring seasons ended earlier. The winter and autumn seasons began to come later than in the first period, and the summer and autumn seasons ended later. Due to the change in the dates of the beginning and end of seasons, their duration has also changed: the proportion of the summer season of the year in the structure of the annual cycle has significantly increased, while the duration of the other three seasons (winter, spring and autumn) has decreased. Evaluation of temporal characteristics, as well as data on the percentage of seasons of the year in the structure of the annual cycle are presented in the paper in the form of tables and diagrams. The obtained quantitative information on changes in the natural seasonal rhythm of climate for this territory is new and can be useful in developing a strategy of response of various sectors of the economy and socio-economic life of the population of the North to the ongoing changes in the natural environment. Contribution of the authors: Kosova E.A. - statistical analysis of climatic characteristics; temporal analysis of changes in seasonal rhythms creation of tables and diagrams; writing the draft; final conclusions. Filandysheva L.B. - scientific management, research concept; methodology development, statistical analysis and generalization of the dynamics of seasonal rhythms, work on the text, final conclusions. Makarenko E. P. - generalization of material on landscape dynamics in the context of climate change, follow-on revision of the text; final conclusions. The authors declare no conflicts of interests.

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