Projecting the Development Strategy of the Eurasian Economic Union through the Prism of the International Relations' Alliance Theory

Rapid changes in the structure of international relations in the 21st century have led to the emergence of alternate centers of power claiming a "great power" status. Their strategic behavior on the international stage requires theoretical conceptualization reflective of current transformations in international relations. Drawing on methodologies of the international relations' alliance theory the article seeks to define a possible direction of Russia's strategic behavior as a dominant actor in the EAEU. The alliance theory argues that stable functional alliances in world politics are defined by assymetric statuses of their participants and by the exclusive role of a hegemonic power in providing security. In the course of the emerging post bi-polar structure of international relations hegemonic powers find themselves competing to recruit "minor" alliance members. The stated aim of the article is pursued by applying key principles of the alliance theory to the study of Eurasian integration, by identifying certain key elements of the geopolitical context for the EAEU's expansion and development, and by defining meaningful distinction criteria for the EAEU and the EU as alliances with different historical, economic, and political foundations. When evaluating the strategic context for the formation of the Eurasian Economic Union, which defines actor behavior of the former republics of the Soviet Union, it is necessary to take into account both the evolved role of the United States as a global hegemonic power and the precipitous increase in the geopolitical weight of China as an alternate power center. Furthermore, a major factor shaping the behavior of post-Soviet states is the growing role of Islam which casts doubt on the secular legitimacy of these polities. Institutional weakness of these states as legitimate power monopolies and the ageing of their elites increase uncertainty risks and drive post-Soviet states to seek partners in order to form alliances, which could ensure stability in their macro-region. In this case uncritical borrowing of the experience of European integration could play a negative role since the formation of the European Union and the formation of the Eurasian Economic Union occurred in different historical conditions. The European Union was formed as a union of stable nation states in the bi-polar structure of international relations with the United States assuming the role of the military resource security provider for that alliance. The Eurasian Economic Union, however is made up only of actors with post-Soviet experience of state building whose elites have been mostly shaped in the political and cultural space of the Soviet era. In the course of this research study, the authors came to conclude that stabilizing the post-Soviet space in the EAEU format requires from Russia as an alliance leader to develop a mode of strategic behavior that would create long term planning horizons, both for Russia and for other alliance members. Such strategy could be defined as "constructive partnership", which means at its core that Russia will be assuming main costs of maintaining security and coordinating projects of reindustrialization and reconstitution of a shared economic space.

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