The evolution of the prohibition of nuclear weapons in the context of the nuclear non-proliferation regime

In July 2017, the text of the Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons (TPNW) was agreed at the meeting of the UN General Assembly. It was supported by 122 States. It is more than half of the parties to the Treaty on The Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) 1968, which is considered the cornerstone of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime. Within the framework of this article, the task is to identify not so much the future of this Treaty, but to find out why this Treaty was the subject of discussion at the UN General Assembly, what problems it revealed within the framework of the nuclear non-proliferation regime? On the one hand, the TPNW became a compromise option for many non-nuclear countries, on the other hand, the emergence of the TPNW demonstrates the lack of consensus between NPT member-states. The authors of the study analyzed a large amount of data: reports of the Open-ended Working Groups to develop proposals to take forward multilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations for the achievement and maintenance of a world without nuclear weapons, the transcripts of the meetings of the UN Conference on the negotiating of the NPT, documents and reports from the meetings of the Preparatory Committee for NPT Review conference-2020, etc. The idea of the emergence of an international legal agreement on the prohibition of nuclear weapons appeared in 1995 when discussing options for extending operation of the NPT and it was the expression of discontent by a number of non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS) regarding the process of fulfillment of treaty obligations by nuclear weapon states (NWS). At the first stage, the idea of nuclear weapons prohibition was discussed mainly within the framework of the activities of international non-governmental organizations and various intergovernmental groups. In 2010, the NPT Review conference decided to include in the text of the final document an obligation for nuclear weapon states to accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals in accordance with article VI of the NPT. This was the starting point of legitimizing the negotiation process on the prohibition and elimination of nuclear weapons. From 2012 to 2016, several rounds of discussions were held within the UN General Assembly on the possibility of convening a Conference to discuss the text of the Convention on the prohibition of nuclear weapons. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), as well as the inclusion of issues on the humanitarian consequences of the use of nuclear weapons on the agenda of the NPT Review conference 2015, began to play an active role. In February 2017, the discussion of a legally binding document on the prohibition of nuclear weapons began. In July 2017, the text was approved, and 122 States voted for it. All nuclear-weapon states, NATO countries, and states with security cooperation agreement with the United States did not participate in the vote. The discussion and vote on the TPNW showed not only an obvious split among NPT member states, but also different interpretations of the implementation of article VI of the NPT. In analyzing the different positions of the TPNW supporters, we were able to identify the main groups of interests both within the NNWS and the possible positions of the NWS. From our point of view, the emergence of TPNW is not the final point in the multilateral negotiating process on nuclear disarmament. The nuclear-weapon states and their allies will have to seek consensual responses to the initiatives of the NNWS.

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