The impact of external actors on ongoing integration processes in Central Asia

The objective of the research is to determine the nature and degree of influence of key extra-regional actors on the direction and dynamics of integration processes in Central Asia. The paper discusses the influence exerted on regional integration processes by Russia, China, the European Union, the USA, Japan and Turkey. For the analysis, we have taken the policy of the great powers (defined according to the criteria proposed by B. Buzan and O. Waever in the fundamental monograph “Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security”) and the policy of Turkey, which is highly active in Central Asia. The theoretical and methodological basis of the analysis is the theory of regional security complexes and the liberal intergovernmental approach to explaining the processes of interstate integration. The study is based on the analysis of a wide range of sources: official documents, speeches, statements, interviews with officials, news publications - and a significant amount of literature, primarily expert and analytical publications. The research reached the following conclusions. The degree of Russia’s influence on the integration processes in Central Asia is high, the nature of the influence is the deepening of integration in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the expansion of the EAEU, and the consolidation of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The degree of China’s influence is high, the nature of the influence is the actual pulling of the countries of the region into the sphere of China’s economic attraction. China’s attempts to initiate integration within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have failed, Beijing’s interest in the SCO has been declining in recent years, but the Central Asian region is seen as one of the key links in the Belt and Road economic corridors from China to Europe, the Mediterranean, South Asia, and the Middle East. The degrees of influence of the EU and Japan are, respectively, low and extremely low, the nature of the influence of these actors is to stimulate intra-regional integration impulses. The degree of US influence is medium, the nature of the influence is undermining Russiancentric projects and counteracting the expansion of China’s influence. The degree of Turkey’s influence is average, with an upward trend, the nature of the influence is the formation of the Turkic Union. In general, competition is developing in Central Asia for integration projects initiated by non-regional actors. The degree of complementarity of integration projects remains low, despite the entry into force of the agreement on trade and economic cooperation between the EAEU and China. Competition of integration projects creates the threat of “extinguishing” integration impulses and stagnation of regional economic and political cooperation. However, the competitive situation also creates a space of opportunities for introducing integration projects developed in the countries of the region into the agenda of interstate relations in Central Asia.

Keywords

Authors

References