Australia's regional security policy in an uncertain era
In Southeast Asia, and especially in the Indo-Pacific Region, the role of Australia’s position as a "regional power with global interests" is increasing. In the strategic regional balance of powers it ranks fifth after the United States, China, India, and Japan. In terms of the development of regional military partnerships, which act as an amplifier of its military potential, Australia comes second after the United States. Russian scholars study various aspects of Australia's domestic, foreign, and economic policies. However, most of them are dominated by categorical assessments regarding the Australian anti-Chinese position. This article supports the idea of the dynamics of Australia's foreign policy from hedging to strategic balancing. This article analyzes Australia's regional security policy in the context of geopolitical uncertainty. Particular attention is paid to Australia's security challenges and an analysis of the dynamics of the national security strategy, Australia's participation in minilateral agreements and the influence of Australian policy on the regional security architecture. The author adheres to the research principle of “analytical eclecticism” formulated by R. Sil and P.J. Katzenstein. To achieve the objectives, in the introductory part, the author gave a brief analysis of the features of the security architecture in the region, which consists of the intersection of multilateral, minilateral agreements, the hub-and-spoke alliance structure and latticework supported by the United States. Australia has revised its national defense strategy, based on the fact that its geographical position is no longer a guarantor of security. The article examines the supporting blocks of Australia's security partnership, which allow it to rearm and create security belts. China uses the means at its disposal for political, economic or military coercion of regional states, including Australia, to accept the Chinese model of Asian order. Nevertheless, the Australian leadership seeks to avoid demonstrating an openly anti-Chinese position. In the context of strategic uncertainty associated with the lack of a specific concept of US policy in the region, Australia will continue the policy of strategic balancing, strengthening minilateral agreements with regional and external actors. The author declares no conflicts of interests.
Keywords
Australian Security Strategy,
minilateralism,
strategic balancing,
Indo-Pacific,
Trump's Indo-Pacific Strategy,
China-Australia relationsAuthors
Mikhaylenko Valery I. | Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia Boris Yeltsin | valery.mikhaylenko@urfu.ru |
Всего: 1
References
Kai He. Rethinking East Asian peace: the perils of over-deterrence and minilateralism // Australian Journal of International Affairs. 2025. Vol. 2 (79). Р. 295-305. doi: 10.1080/10357718.2025.2459314.
Михайленко В.И. Роль минилатеральных соглашений в Индо-Тихоокеанской политике США и Китая // Вестник Пермского университета. Политология. 2025. № 1 (19). С. 121-129. doi: 10.17072/2218-1067-2025-1-121-129.
The Latest on Southeast Asia: U.S. Withdrawal from JETP. URL: https://www.csis.org/blogs/latest-southeast-asia/latest-southeast-asia-us-withdrawaljetp (accessed: 16.03.2025).
Statement on United States tariffs. URL: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/statement-united-states-tariffs (accessed: 18.03.2025).
Singh D. How A Ceasefire in Ukraine Could Affect Asian Security / Fulcrum. 2025. Feb. 14. URL: https://fulcrum.sg/how-a-ceasefire-in-ukrainecould-affect-asian-security/(accessed: 19.02.2025).
Wang Yuzhu. New Regionalism. Reshaping the Future of Globalization // China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies. 2020. Vol. 2 (06). P. 249-256. doi: 10.1142/S2377740020500116.
Захарьев Я.О. Почему Австралия превращается в развитого ведомого игрока глобального и регионального пространства // Экономические отношения. 2021. № 3 (11). С. 557-564. doi: 10.18334/eo.11.3.113403.
Сведенцов В.Л. Значение AUKUS для Австралии в контексте геополитического соперничества США и КНР // Проблемы национальной стратегии. 2024. № 6 (87). С. 196-223.
Пале С.Е. Китай, Австралия и страны Океании: кто с кем против кого // Юго-Восточная Азия: актуальные проблемы развития. 2022. Т. 2, № 2 (55). С. 64-73. doi: 10.31696/2072-8271-2022-12-2-55-064-073.
Международная безопасность: новый миропорядок и технологическая революция / отв. ред. А.Г. Арбатов и др. М. : Весь мир, 2023. 432 с.
Кочегуров Д.А. Австралия во внешней и оборонной политике США на современном этапе // США и Канада: экономика, политика, культура. 2024. № 11 (659). С. 58-75. doi: 10.31857/S2686673024110047.
Sil R., Katzenstein P.J. Beyond Paradigms: Analytic Eclecticism in the Study of World Politics. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257267574_Beyond_Paradigms_Analytic_Eclecticism_in_the_Study_of_World_Politics (accessed: 04.04.2025).
He K., Feng H. IR Theory and Australia’s Policy Change Towards China, 2017-2022 : An Introductory Essay // Journal of Contemporary China. 2024. doi: 10.1080/10670564.2024.2365246. URL: https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au/server/api/core/bitstreams/d12257c9-fdd3-4fcf-a656-ac2dfd132c3a/content (accessed: 10.03.2025).
Australia and the Indian Ocean region // Australian Government. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. URL: https://www.dfat.gov.au/international-relations/regional-architecture/indian-ocean/Pages/indian-ocean-region (accessed: 10.03.2025).
2017 Foreign Policy White Paper // Australian Government. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. URL: https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/2017-foreign-policy-white-paper.pdf (accessed: 21.02.2025).
Defence Networks // Lowy Institute. Asia Power Index. URL: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/(accessed: 21.02.2025).
Patton S. From global to regional: Australia’s focus narrows // Lowy Institute. 2024. June 13. URL: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/global-regional-australia-s-focus-narrows (accessed: 23.02.2025).
Tesch P. AUKUS: Two pillars, three fallacies // Lowy Institute. 2025. March 13. URL: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/aukus-two-pillars-three-fallacies (accessed: 16.03.2025).
2024 National Defence Strategy and 2024 Integrated Investment Program Australian Government. Defence. URL: https://www.defence.gov.au/about/strategic-planning/2024-national-defence-strategy-2024-integrated-investment-program (accessed: 25.02.2025).
Keary J. China’s navy sends a steady drumbeat of ships around Australia // Australia Strategic Policy Institute. 2025. March 10. URL: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-navy-sends-a-steady-drumbeat-of-ships-around-australia/(accessed: 16.03.2025).
Pezzullo M. Australia’s defences must be ready in two years. Here’s what to do two years. Here’s what to do // Australia Strategic Policy Institute. 2025. March 8. URL: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australias-defences-must-be-ready-in-two-years-heres-what-to-do/(accessed: 16.03.2025).
Parker J. With Chinese warships nearby, Australia needs to step up as a maritime power // Australia Strategic Policy Institute. 2025. Feb. 26. URL: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/with-chinese-warships-nearby-australia-needs-to-step-up-as-a-maritime-power/(accessed: 16.03.2025).
Yaacob A.R., Priyandita G., Laksmi S. Southeast Asia’s Security Landscape. Lessons for the ADF // Lowy Institute. 2023. Oct. 11. URL: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/southeast-asia-s-security-landscape-lessons-adf (accessed: 23.02.2025).
Knott M. “We need a plan B”: Admiral’s call for AUKUS rethink over unreliable Trump // The Sidney Morning Herald. 2025. March 13. URL: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-a-plan-b-admiral-s-call-for-aukus-rethink-over-unreliable-trump-20250312-p5lizw.html (accessed: 14.03.2025).
AUKUS Pillar 2 // Parliament of Australia. URL: https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Research/FlagPost/2024/August/AUKUS_Pillar_(accessed: 18.03.2025).
Warren A., Hunt Ch.T. What a Trump return might mean for AUKUS and the Quad. A nascent regional security “minilateral” architecture is vulnerable to Trump’s brand of disruption // Lowy Institute. 2024. Oct. 28. URL: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-trump-return-might-mean-aukus-quad (accessed: 10.03.2025).
Carouso J. Australia’s Trade Challenges in 2025.Commentary. URL: https://www.csis.org/analysis/australias-trade-challenges-2025 (accessed: 31.03.2025).
Agreement between the Government of the Republic of the Philippines and the Government of Australia concerning the Status of Visiting Forces of Each State in the Territory of the Other State // Senate of the Philippines. URL: https://legacy.senate.gov.ph/15th_congress/treaties/agreement%20govt%20rp%20and%20govt%20of%20australia%20visiting%20forces.pdf (accessed: 31.03.2025).
Judson J. US Army plans Australia test of missile launcher that has irked China // DefenseNews. 2025. March 27. URL: https://www.defensenews.com/land/2025/03/27/us-army-plans-australia-test-of-missile-launcher-that-has-irked-china/?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dfn-asia (accessed: 03.04.2025).
Washington Summit Declaration // North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 2024. July 10. URL: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm (accessed: 25.03.2025).
Hardy J. NATO’s collective power - and Australia’s role // Lowy Institute. 2024. July 12. URL: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/nato-s-collective-power-australia-s-role (accessed: 25.03.2025).
Relations with Australia // North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 2024. Oct. 24. URL: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_48899.htm (accessed: 29.03.2025).
Bisley N. Australia Rues “Extreme Strategic Loneliness” // Fulcrum. 2025. Apr. 7. URL: https://fulcrum.sg/australia-rues-extreme-strategic-loneliness/(accessed: 07.04.2025).
China country brief // Australian Government. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. 2024. Dec. URL: https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/china/china-country-brief#:~:text=sister%2Dcity%20relationships.-,Trade%20and%20investment,%24212.7%20billion%20in%202023%2D24 (accessed: 03.04.2025).
How Interagency Campaigns Can Counter Chinese Gray Zone Incursions in the Pacific / commentary by B. Jensen, K. McInnis, A. Aldisert. 2025. March 13. URL: https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-interagency-campaigns-can-counter-chinese-gray-zone-incursions-pacific (accessed: 07.04.2025).
Chan J., Patalano A. Strategic Warning Time and the Importance of Thinking Ahead // IDSS Papers. 2025. March 28. № 045/2025.
Singh S. India and the QUAD: The Opportunities and Challenges of Trump 2.0 // IDSS Papers. 2025. March 21. № 037/2025.