The revolution wave dynamics: a comparative political analysis of the Spring of Nations, 1848-1849

The factors and patterns of revolutionary dynamics are analysed on the empirical basis of the Italian and German revolutions of 1848-49. The article uses a theoretical-historical approach in comparative political analysis that includes shuttle movements between hypotheses and systematic comparison of cases for their verification and correction. The factors of the creation of a revolutionary situation are clarified and the hypothesis of "replenishment" of the missing factors is tested. The revolutionary wave effect is treated as an external influence of successful revolutions in neighbouring and/or highly referential societies. The principles of the interrelation in the revolutionary period of internal political dynamics and geopolitics are formulated on the basis of historical sociological and political studies generalisation. Military victory always raises the legitimacy of the victor, whose role can belong to a revolutionary government, a republic, and a counter-revolutionary monarchy. The bright military victories of the imperial centre marginalise an opposition, increase the loyalty of the border regions, and reduce the support of the separatists. External defeats intensify the political crisis at the centre of power, which weakens its military power and strengthens separatism. The external defeats of post-revolutionary regimes delegitimise not only power and leaders but also symbols, slogans and ideology of revolution. The fate of revolution depends on which field of struggle will be decisive. During the crisis period the intuitive sensitivity of the leaders to slogans and rhetoric is most significant for mobilising allies and masses. Presumably, the demonstration of involvement in such symbols, ideas, social and political projects that most closely correspond to the world picture, values, identities and actual interests of potential adherents comes to the forefront. In the most difficult cases of an approximately equal level of legitimacy for the conflicting parties, the main role is played by the ability of leaders to make both adherents and opponents believe that they have a predominant legitimacy and inevitably win. Since the majority of participants (including elites and law enforcement agencies) are opportunistic and fearful of being on the losing side, the peak of confrontation usually does not last for more than 2-3 days, after which the victorious party acquires more supporters. The approach presupposes that military and international factors, which usually serve as particularistic explanations ad hoc, are included here in the general concept and are formulated in universal concepts. Thus, the revealed regularities can be used for analysing a wide range of other revolutionary waves.

Keywords

Authors

References