Cardinal Versions of the Future: An Essay on Futurology Systematization

The article attempts to give, if possible, the universal system of both the existing and any possible futurology. Its universality is determined by the fact that one of the scenarios of the future within it must necessarily take place. There are two 'layers" of the corresponding direction of thought, which are designated as "short-range futurology" and "long-range futurology". The natural dependence of futurology on the state of society and on the priority directions of the development of science and technology is shown. The former and the latter largely determine the people's mood and their expectations from tomorrow. For example, for the early futurology of the late 1950s-1960s, hopes for the "cosmic" future of the humankind are more characteristic; for the later one (from the 1970s and especially from the 1980s) the hopes are for the "computer" future. Overviews are given of forecasts for the coming decades (the concepts of postindustrial, or informational, society and technological singularity are the main ones here) and tables of some ultimate prospects that outline though not the entire but at least the significant part of the futurological "field". The distinctive features of the emerging postindustrial society, the social problems intrinsic for its initial (modern) stage of development, the ambiguous results of the too rapid introduction of various technologies into life are shown. The basis for the typology of future scenarios is the astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev's classification (proposed in 1964) of space civilizations in terms of energy consumption. The intelligent activity variations analyzed by Kardashev are regarded in the article as possible scenarios of the future of the terrestrial humankind. There are four cardinal versions: Infinitive Expansion (unlimited development with the capture of more and more new areas of life), Autarchy (closure within the solar system and reduction of growth to zero in all directions), Degradation (wildness, return to the "bosom of nature") and, finally, Termination (destruction).

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