Complexity of social interactions and Dyakonov-Vinge singularity

The authors suggest a new object of research by universal evolutionism, in which complexity growth is exhibited. It is singularity of biosphere-social evolution, transition of the World System to a stabilization and its consequences. The authors aim: to present this object as the general factor, which sets a transformation direction of social system now; to supplement knowledge toolkit of auto-complexifying and self-upcoming systems; to imagine the strategy of the future attitudes of man with engineering. The authors suppose by an indirect complexity index of the World System the Earth population N, which depends on a level T of engineering development. I. Dyakonov has shown: in the last 120000 years in the history there were eight phase transitions (bifurcations). It is essential, that each phase of evolution is shorter previous almost in the same number of times. A moment t*, called by Dyakonov a singularity of the history therefore is inevitable, when the last phase duration works for zero. It means, that after a moment t*«2064 year in character of historical process the unprecedent changes are inevitable. A. Panov has proved: 19 phase transitions (bifurcations) to complexity increase on the Earth, including on 8 in the history, to the law satisfy. The authors mark, that the singularity is known in relativistic physics. In synergetics it name as a mode with a peaking: long duration quasistationary stage on start and superfast growth - near to a final moment t*. The peaking is possible in opened nonlinear systems with strong positive feedback. The authors conclude 1: complexity growth in a system accelerates it evolution, sequentially reducing it characteristic stages. The authors analyse of demographic model by H. von Foerster et al., hypothesis by S. Kuznets, concept by M. Kremer, model by A.V. Korotaev et al. The analysis results in a conclusion 2: self-development mechanism of the World System is a mutual determination of auto-complexifying and self-development on a principle of a cyclical causality: N-—T. But for whose account the auto-complexifying is reproduced? The answer results in a conclusion 3: growth of complexity (N) leads out the World System from a mode of auto-complexifying (mode with a peaking) to stabilization (N^const), i.e. the complexity growth transforms the system in self-restricting. But by virtue of interdependence N- T it threatens with stagnation of technological growth T. The authors discuss idea of a technological singularity, which J. von Neumann and St. Ulam, V. Vinge, R. Kurzweil and other put forward. And there conclusion 4 is suggested: techno-singularity is a probable mechanism of maintenance of knowledge (T) production in futurum, when the stabilization of the World System will set in. The conclusion 5: the techno-singularity versus the stabilization of the World System is a new theme. Developing it, the authors put forward a six hypothesises concerning the scripts of the future.

Keywords

Authors

References