Specifics of Forecasting of Social Systems' Development for a Period of the Transition to Knowledge Society

Peculiarities of forecasting of social systems' development is analyzed in the article. It is shown that conditions of emerging Knowledge Society determine perfectly new peculiarities of social forecasts. The possibility of social forecasting with reasonable accuracy has been a subject of a lengthy discussion for many years. Changes dynamics, impact on the environment, management complexity and the importance of forecasting have been increasing during the period of transformation of the pre-industrial society to the industrial one, and then to the post-industrial society. Under that circumstances information becomes the main resource, and the forecasting of social systems' development becomes crucial. The macro environment uncertainty exacerbates management complexity caused by the nonlinearity of social processes. Besides, a potential multiplicity of directions of social systems' development determines not only the wide range of possible trajectories, but also complexity of emerging problems. The transformation of modern society to society in which knowledge becomes the key resource deserves special attention nowadays. Knowledge makes significant changes not only in the behavior models of social systems, but also in their environment. High dynamics and uncertainty of the environment has long been one of the most significant consequences of the global information space' formation. Sharing of information and communication technologies created conditions for essential changes in the ways of social interaction and adaptation. On the one hand, the globalization created new opportunities for social systems' development. On the other hand, it made their environment extremely dynamic and uncertain. At the same time, the absence of strict predetermination for social systems' development creates preconditions for the emergence of perfectly new social structures. The structures are characterized by high level of adaptability which implies ability to searching and making effective decisions. To our opinion, it expands the boundaries of the social forecasting and managing significantly.

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