Modern theories of international labor migration as a methodology for the development of the national migration policy in Russia

The numerous empirical findings obtained by different scientists at different times make it possible to determine the theoretical foundations for the elaboration of migration policy in the Russian Federation. Most empirical studies aimed at the phenomenon of international labor migration were carried out using aggregated macroeconomic indices. The results of numerous econometric studies of aggregate migration flows confirm that the driving condition for making the decision to migrate is the factor of expected income in the destination country. In 1967 K. Bishop proved the correlation of the change in urbanization and the failures of labor market in rural areas. G. Shu provided econometric evidence confirming that an increase in expected earnings in nonagricultural areas of employment leads to an increase in labor supply in the agricultural sectors of economy. Based on the achievements of the theories of human capital in defining the structure and change of international labor migration, we conduct a study on macroeconomic indicators of modern countries in order to identify the opportunity of forming massive flows of unskilled migrants. The basic hypothesis of the study is that different countries with different levels of socio-economic development have completely rather different values of local human capital index, which is expressed, primarily, though productivity. This is possible to determine using statistical methods and data of the World Bank. The study takes into account macroeconomic indicators of 77 modern countries in the world and the World Bank statistics. Based on the methodology for assessing migration threats from foreign countries' residents, as well as the possible consequences of unregulated development of international labor migration, we can identify a number of key provisions for the modernization of the national migration policy. As being the internal direction of the national migration policy, methods of state regulation maintaining the balance within the national economic system should be considered. Another important direction of the inner migration policy should become the migrants themselves, considered as individuals and as members of foreign households (families). The external priorities of the modernization of the Russian migration policy are rejection of the universalization principle and implementation of bilateral agreements between the Russian Federation and foreign countries. In the framework of the proposed version of the national migration policy the rules for the implementation of initiatives of foreign migrants will depend on the country - of origin of a migrant (viz. the existence of specialized agreements between Russia and the countries of origin of a migrant, the content of those agreements).

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