Performance assessment and "adverse selection"

The concept of "adverse selection" is repeatedly mentioned in relation to the problems of higher education. This paper analyzes the results of the monitoring of higher education institutions' activity, conducted annually by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation. It was found that universities recognized by the working group of the interdepartmental commission as inefficient had been divided into three groups, namely, universities requiring optimization of activity, universities requiring restructuring of activity, and universities that could not be unanimously classified by the experts. What had criteria had the working group used? Multiple linear regression was calculated to determine those criteria. The calculations showed that the highest degree of association was between the parameter "nature of the decision made" (y) and the indicator "infrastructure". This implied that only "infrastructure" had had decisive influence on the positive conclusion (in favor of optimization, not reorganization) of the interdepartmental commission in relation to higher education institutions that were qualified as inefficient. The degree of association of the parameter "nature of the decision made" and the rest of the parameters was appeared to be rather low or even with a negative value. This largely unexpected result obtained in the course of the analysis enabled us to pose a question on validity of the methods used to assess the performance of universities and decisions based on them. The paper discusses the theoretical basis for systems of monitoring educational activity, viz. the concept of "added value", "the transformational approach". Following the results of the analysis, the author considers the need for a more careful approach not only to the selection of the most effective indicators for assessing the transformational impact of educational process on students but also to the selection of folding techniques for parameters. For this purpose, it is expedient to use Data Envelopment Analysis, which is demonstrated by the example of data analysis of one of the oldest educational institutions of Siberia. This method makes it possible to rank scientific based on the assessment of their performance; to calculate the target values of indicators for assessment for those departments that are recognized as ineffective according to the results of calculations; to outline the actions to be taken on the pathway towards the achievement of results demonstrated by the leaders. This confirms the fact that Data Envelopment Analysis also performs the functions of a tool for benchmarking research.

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