Estimation procedure for demographic processes in the region

The article considers a system of estimation of demographic processes in the region, developed on the basis of a comprehensive method which combines objective and subjective approaches and includes the method of estimation of demographic processes by main indicators (based on the comparison of dynamics of actual performance of demographic processes in the region with threshold (critical) values, with mean values developed in the Russian Federation, federal district involving the region under investigation as well as from the point of view of municipalities within the region); method based on derivation of integral index of estimation of demographic processes and method based on generalization of the results of surveys of the population of the region. The choice of indices used for integral estimation is conditioned by their advantages as well as by the accessibility of necessary information in the context of municipalities in statistical digests. Therefore, to calculate integral index the following rates were chosen: total birth-rate (%), total marriage rate (%), percentage of out of the wedlock births (%), total death-rate (%), infant mortality rate (%). Selected indices with different units of measurement are subject to extra standardization. Thereby, calculation of the integral index allows estimation for certain differentiations of demographic processes in the region and also to compare demographic processes in municipalities, with other subjects of the Federation as well as with estimation of demographic processes in the country on the whole. Besides, the rating scale of integral index of demographic processes is offered for the interpretation of the data received. To study public opinion on population policy carried out by regional authorities in the sphere of fertility increasing and family strengthening, mortality reducing and improvement of population health a survey which is the closing stage of the system of estimation of demographic processes in the region is held. Approbation of the method based on the example of Kemerovo region in 2013 is carried out. As a result, it is revealed that municipalities in the region are distributed extremely irregular according to the value of the index of integral estimation of demographic processes. Thus, the proposed approach will enable us to provide comprehensive estimation of demographic processes on problem area detection and make effective managerial decisions in this sphere; develop and improve the system of information interaction of bodies of executive power of the region, local bodies of federal executive power, bodies of local governments of metropolitan regions and urban districts.

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