Development of the theory and methodology of geological and economic estimation of hydrocarbon resources

The article considers the stages of development of the theory and methodology of geological and economic estimation of hydrocarbon resources in Russia. It is shown that at the present stage of development of subsoil use, geological and economic estimation is the main instrument of the state and companies in choosing and economically substantiating the priority directions of geological exploration and development options for deposits and subsoil plots. In conditions when unified norms for geological and economic estimation of subsoil use objects have not been formed at the state level, the authors set the research purpose - justification of directions for improving the geological and economic estimation of hydrocarbon resources on the basis of a comprehensive scientific generalization of the results of theory and methodology development. The article explores the evolution of views on the choice of the criterion for the economic efficiency of development of deposits, identifies the features of the development stages and gives their periodization: the stage until the 1930s. - economic evaluation of the efficiency of individual industries as a whole; stage of 1930-1960-ies. - mainly focused on the evaluation of land and mountain rents, introduced the concept of closing costs, compensation costs, airborne maintenance, etc .; stage of the 1960s-1980s. - economic evaluation of the mining enterprise, determination of the value of the deposit (evaluation of the final product cost, production costs, profit); stage 1980-2000-ies. - economic evaluation of the resource potential of the production region, geological and economic assessment of oil and gas resources; Stage of the 2000s. - Valuation of hydrocarbon reserves and resources as investment objects. In the paper, the features of the current stage of development of geological and economic modeling are highlighted, which are the strengthening of detail on the geological and economic part, which is associated with the expansion of methods for quantifying oil and gas prospects and applying a wide range of mathematical tools in calculating the criteria for economic efficiency. Particular attention is paid to a comparative analysis of probabilistic approaches to risk management as a key direction in the development of geological and economic estimation at the present stage. The modern level of computer technology development and the leveling of information barriers make it possible to calculate non-deterministic indices of field development efficiency, but a set of possible results or justified scenarios. In conclusion, the directions for improving the methodology of geological and economic estimation are presented, taking into account the fact that, firstly, the geological and economic assessment object is changing, the emphasis is shifted to the estimation of resources, rather than oil reserves. Secondly, approaches to the justification of the composition and types of costs change significantly when assessing the resources and reserves of hard-to-recover and unconventional hydrocarbons, and above all the shelf of the Arctic seas. Thirdly, the need to develop and apply mathematical models of risk accounting at all stages of geological and economic assessment is increasing.

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