Dependence of the structure of budget expenditures in the northern regions on price volatility and hydrocarbon production volumes (using the example of Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs)

The dependence of budget revenues in the northern regions on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, primarily on world energy prices, has a significant impact on their stability and sustainability. In these regions, during periods of rising hydrocarbon prices, budget surpluses are formed, which creates opportunities for increased investment in the economy and infrastructure. However, with lower prices, there is a shortage, forcing spending cuts, including in socially significant areas. Such dependence reduces the predictability of budget planning, limits the implementation of longterm development strategies and increases social risks, which poses a serious threat to the sustainable development of the regions. The aim of this work was to assess the dependence of the structure of budget revenues and expenditures of the northern regions on changes in prices and production volumes of hydrocarbons. The object of the study was Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, whose budget revenues mostly come from the oil and gas sector. As a result, stable dependencies were identified between changes in the income levels of Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug budgets, on the one hand, and budget allocations for key items of socio-economic development of the territory, on the other. Thus, it was proved that by 2021 both regions maintained the predominance of a socially oriented cost allocation model, but since 2022, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug has seen a shift towards financing economic and infrastructure projects. The significance of the results obtained lies in the identification of structural changes in the budget policy of the northern oil and gas regions under the influence of external economic factors, which makes it possible in practice to predict expenditures on key budget sections depending on changes in revenues of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The authors declare no conflicts of interests.

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