The impact of population age structure on economic development and the role of human capital in these processes: An analysis of 30 provinces in China | Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ekonomika – Tomsk State University Journal of Economics. 2025. № 70. DOI: 10.17223/19988648/70/20

The impact of population age structure on economic development and the role of human capital in these processes: An analysis of 30 provinces in China

Population aging and declining birth rates have become global challenges. Changes in dependency ratios influence economic growth through various mechanisms. However, an increase in the level of human capital can mitigate the negative effects of changes in population age structure and dependency ratios on economic development. This article analyzes the relationship between dependency ratios, human capital, and economic growth using data from 30 provinces in China over the period 2003-2023. The study finds that child dependency ratios and overall dependency ratios negatively affect both economic growth and human capital, whereas human capital exerts a significant positive influence on economic growth and serves as a mediating factor between dependency ratios and economic growth. To ensure sustainable economic development, it is essential to plan demographic policies with a long-term perspective, avoiding unwarranted exaggeration of the economic impact of changes in the population age structure. Special attention should also be paid to fostering human capital by developing effective educational policies tailored to different age groups. The authors declare no conflicts of interests.

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Keywords

population age structure, economic growth, population dependency ratio, dependency burden, human capital

Authors

Name	Organization	E-mail
Fang Sun	Tomsk State University	unasun77@gmail.com
Nekhoda Evgeniya V.	Tomsk State University	sheyna1963@yandex.ru

Всего: 2

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