Telegram Revolution - An Analysis of Political Instability of Belarus in 2020
The political instability in Belarus during and after the “2020 Presidential Election” and the extensive use of Telegram Instant Messenger as the media to fuel the uprising became a large discussion point across the world political discourse. This article aims to analyse the impact of Telegram Messenger on political instability during and after the election. This article analyses causal variables for the instability such as the geopolitics of Belarus, the COVID-19 pandemic induced problems, the democratic transition in the post-Soviet space, the economic hardship in Belarus, and the non-transparent political process. The analysis revealed that the accumulation of political power by few elites precipitated political frustration among people. The non-democratic, non-transparent, unfair electoral practice was the immediate cause that led to political instability. Telegram acted as the principal communication channel throughout the demonstrations and had a great role in sustaining the uprising. That is the reason why leading political analysts credited the uprising to Telegram Messenger and hence termed it the “Telegram Revolution”.
Keywords
Belarus,
uprising,
social media,
Telegram Revolution,
geopolitics,
RussiaAuthors
Parida Sudhir Kumar | University of Delhi | sudhiruuindia@gmail.com |
Всего: 1
References
Krivosheev, K. & Soloviev, V. (2021) Aleksandr Lukashenko is a quick learner. Kommersant. May 24. [cited 2021 May 25]; [Online] Available from: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4825905?from=main_1 (In Russian).
United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. (2021) Chairman Menendez and European Allies Condemn Lukashenka Regime for Intercepting Civilian Flight to Arrest Journalist. [cited 2021 May 25]. [Online] Available from: https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/chairman-menendez-and-european-allies-condemn-lukashenka-regime-for-intercepting-civilian-flight-to-arrest-journalist
Kovalenko, M. (2021) Western sanctions cause potash non-fertilization. [cited 2021 Jun 25]. [Online] Available from: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4867852 (In Russian).
RIA Novosti. (2021) The five-hour talks between Putin and Lukashenko have finished. May 28. [cited 2021 May 29]; [Online] Available from: https://ria.ru/20210528/peregovory-1734683596.html (In Russian).
Davlashyan, N. (2020) What is Nexta - the Telegram channel reporting on Belarus' protests? Euronews. [cited 2021 Jun 19]. [Online] Available from: https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/12/what-is-nexta-the-telegram-channel-reporting-on-belarus-protests
NEXTA Live. (2021) Hijacked a plane. How Roman Protasevich was detained. [cited 2021 May 25]. [Online] Available from: https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=wygrkqEHlv8 (In Russian).
RIA Novosti. (2021) In Belaruss, ten more Telegram channels were recognized as extremist ones. [cited 2021 Jul 15]. [Online] Available from: https://ria.ru/20210712/belorussiya-1740981223.html (In Russian).
Kautalya & Rangarajan, L.N. (1992) The Arthashastra. New Delhi, Bharat: Penguin Books India.
Kennan, G.F. (1960) Peaceful Coexistence: A Western View. Foreign Aff. 38 (2):171.
Mueller, W. (2011) A good example of peaceful coexistence? The Soviet Union, Austria, and neutrality 1955-1991. Wien: OAW, Verlag der Osterreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften.
RF Ministry of Defence. (2016) Statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergei Lavrov. [Video]. [cited 2021 May 31]. [Online] Available from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4CgwWVXwvo (In Russian).
TASS. (2016) Moscow Security Conference: Terrorism, the Situation in Syria, the RF-NATO Relations. [cited 2021 May 31]. [Online] Available from: https://tass.ru/politika/3242591 (In Russian).
Zakharova, M. (2021) Briefing by Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. Moscow. April 22, 2021. [cited 2021 May 29]. [Online] Available from: https://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4698265
Russian Federation. (2015) Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of December 31, 2015, No. 683. [cited 2021 May 31]. [Online] Available from: http://kremlin.ru/acts/bank/40391 (In Russian).
Russian Federation. (2015) Russian National Security Strategy, December 2015 - Full-text Translation. [Online] Available from: https://ia801005.us.archive.org/32/items/russiannationalsecuritystrategy31dec2015/Russian-National-Security-Stra-tegy-31Dec2015.pdf
BBC News. (2021) US strikes in Iraq and Syria target Iran-backed militia facilities. June 28. [cited 2021 Jul 18]; [Online] Available from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57633360
Cooley, A. (2017) Whose Rules, Whose Sphere? Russian Governance and Influence in Post-Soviet States. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. [cited 2021 May 28]. [Online] Available from: https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/06/30/whose-rules-whose-sphere-russian-governance-and-influence-in-post-soviet-states-pub-71403
Trenin, D. (2009) Russia's Spheres of Interest, not Influence. Wash Q. Oct. 32 (4). pp. 3-22.
Donovan, J. (2002) Belarus: Conference in Washington Urges “Regime Change” in Minsk. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. [cited 2021 Jun 2]. [Online] Available from: https://www.rferl.org/a/1101393.html
Bohdan, S. (2015) “A revolution is impossible in Belarus”. The Guardian. [cited 2021 Jun 2]. [Online] Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/ world/2015/mar/25/belarus-revolution-impossible-alexander-lukashenko
BBC News. (2010) Russia's Medvedev attacks Belarus President Lukashenko. Oct. 4, 2010. [cited 2021 Jun 1]; [Online] Available from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-11469027
Radio Free Europe. (2010) Lukashenka Slams “Russian Smear”. [cited 2021 Jun 1]. [Online] Available from: https://www.rferl.org/a/Lukashenka_ Calls_Russian_ Media_Attacks_Dirty_Propoganda/2103572.html
Shraibman, A. (2020) Why Belarusians Are Turning Against Russia. Carnegie Moscow Center. [cited 2021 Jun 2]. [Online] Available from: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/83459
Radio Free Europe. (2020) Lukashenka Accuses Moscow of Pressuring Belarus into Russian Merger. [cited 2021 Jun 2]. [Online] Available from: https://www.rferl.org/a/lukashenka-belarus-accuses-russia-pressuring-merger/30396235.html
TASS. (2021) Lukashenko said that Belarus is on the verge of an “ice”, not cold, war [cited 2021 May 31]. [Online] Available from: https://tass.ru/mezhdunarod-naya-panorama/11476139 (In Russian).
Latynina, Y. (2021) Escape from Wuhan. [cited 2021 Jul 23]. [Online] Available from: https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2021/06/05/pobeg-iz-ukhania (In Russian).
Schwab, K & Malleret, T. (2020) COVID-19: the great reset. Thierry: Books.
IEP. (2020) COVID-19 AND PEACE. [Online] Available from: https://www.economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/COVID1 9-and-Peaceweb.pdf
The Eurasian Times. (2020) Belarus Has a Treatment for COVID-19: Play Ice Hockey, Drink Vodka & Kill the Virus: OpED. Latest Asian, Middle-East, EurAsian, Indian News. Apr 15. [cited 2021 May 29]; [Online] Available from: https://eurasiantimes.com/misinformation-amidst-pandemic-in-belarus-play-ice-hockey-drink-vodka-kill-the-virus/
Levitsky, S. & Way, L.A. (2010) Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
European Union. (2021) The 27 member countries of the EU. [cited 2021 May 29]. [Online] Available from: https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en
Way, L. (2008) The Real Causes of the Color Revolutions. J Democr. 19 (3). pp. 55-69.
Schipani-Aduriz, A. (2005) Can he crush the united colours of revolution? POLITICO. [cited 2021 May 30]. [Online] Available from: https://www.politico.eu/article/can-he-crush-the-united-colours-of-revolution/
Ambrosio, T. (2007) Insulating Russia from a Colour Revolution: How the Kremlin Resists Regional Democratic Trends. Democratization. April. 14 (2). pp. 232-52.
Finkel, E. & Brudny, Y.M. (2012) No more colour! Authoritarian regimes and colour revolutions in Eurasia. Democratization. Feb. 19 (1). pp. 1-14.
Makhovsky, A. (2017) Thousands of Belarussians take to the streets to protest “parasite law.” Reuters. Feb. 17. [cited 2021 Jun 2]; [Online] Available from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-protests-idUSKBN15W1Y0
Sannikov, A. (2017) “We are not slaves”: Europe's most repressive state is re awakening. The Guardian. [cited 2021 Jun 2]. [Online] Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/17/we-are-not-slaves-europe-most-repressive-state-reawakening-belarus
BBC News. (2018) Belarus profile - Timeline. Aug. 20. [cited 2021 May 31]; [Online] Available from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17941637
BNF. (2010) The History of the Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) Party. [cited 2021 May 31]. [Online] Available from: http://narodny.org/bnf/partyja/historyja.shtml
Rada of the Belarusian Democratic Republic. (2017) The Belarusian Popular Front in 1988-1996: photo and video. [cited 2021 May 31]. [Online] Available from: http://www.radabnr.org/en/the-belarusian-popular-front-in-1988-1996-a-photo-gallery/
Radio Free Europe. (2006) Post-Soviet Belarus: A Timeline. [cited 2021 May 31]. [Online] Available from: https://www.rferl.org/a/1066125.html
Preiherman, Y. (2012) Why Don't Belarusians Revolt? BelarusDigest. [cited 2021 May 31]. [Online] Available from: https://belarusdigest.com/story/why-dont-belarusians-revolt/
OSCE. (2006) OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Report. [Online] Available from: https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/4/c/19395.pdf
Fawn, R. (2006) Battle over the Box: International Election Observation Missions, Political Competition and Retrenchment in the Post-Soviet Space. International Affairs. 82. pp. 1133-1153. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2346.2006.00592.x
Barabanov, I. (2006) Only hooligans do not love Lukashenko. Gazeta.ru. [cited 2021 Jun 1]. [Online] Available from: https://www.gazeta.ru/2006/03/29/oa_193969.shtml (In Russian).
Filippov, Y. (2006) “Orange” technologies in Belarus are practical, but ineffective. RIA Novosti. [cited 2021 Jun 1]. [Online] Available from: https://ria.ru/20060321/44618306.html (In Russian).
BBC News. (2010) “Hundreds of protesters arrested” in Belarus. Dec. 20. [cited 2021 Jun 1]; [Online] Available from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-12037486
Gazeta.ru. (2010) The hacker attack on the main opposition website of Belarus came from Peterburg. [cited 2021 Jun 1]. [Online] Available from: https://www.gazeta.ru/news/lastnews/2010/12/19/n_1624281.shtml (In Russian).
DW. (2011) Internet revolutionaries lead protests in Belarus. [cited 2021 Jun 1]. [Online] Available from: https://www.dw.com/en/internet-revolutionaries-lead-protests-in-belarus/a-15253473
Mary. (2011) Belarus blocks Twitter and Facebook in bid to prevent protests. TheJournal.ie. [cited 2021 Jun 1]. [Online] Available from: https://www.thejournal.ie/belarus-blocks-twitter-facebook-in-bid-to-prevent-protests-168807-Jul2011/
Akhtyrko, A. (2021) In Minsk, they said that Lukashenko recognized Crimea as Russian. Gazeta. ru. [cited 2021 Nov 5]. [Online] Available from: https://www.gaze-ta.ru/politics/2021/11/04_a_14170711.shtml (In Russian).
Spring96.org. (2020) New detentions of blogger Tikhanovsky's supporters took place in different cities of the country. [cited 2021 Jun 2]. [Online] Available from: http://spring96.org/be/news/96785 (In Belarusian).
Rust, M. (2020) A new united opposition up against a tired president: counting down to the elections in Belarus. New Eastern Europe. [cited 2021 Jul 18]. [Online] Available from: https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/08/05/a-new-united-opposition-up-against-a-tired-president-counting-down-to-the-elections-in-belarus/
Auseyushkin, Y. & Roth, A. (2020) Belarus election: Lukashenko's claim of landslide victory sparks widespread protests. The Guardian. [cited 2021 Jun 2]. [Online] Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/09/belarus-election-lukashenko-landslide-victory-fixing-claims
Barigazzi, J. & Herszenhon, D. (2020) Belarus opposition leader: Dozens disappeared after protests. POLITICO. [cited 2021 Jul 17]. [Online] Available from: https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-opposition-leader-dozens-disappeared-after-protests/
France24. (2020) Belarus protesters use vehicles to block police from demonstrations over “rigged election”. The Observers - France 24. [cited 2021 Jun 2]. [Online] Available from: https://observers.france24.com/en/20200811-belarus-democracy-protests-police-vehicles
Walker, S. (2020) “Nobody can block it”: how the Telegram app fuels global protest. The Guardian. [cited 2021 Jul 19]. [Online] Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/nov/07/nobody-can-block-it-how-telegram-app-fuels-global-protest
Norris, P. (1997) Political Communications. In: Dunleavy, P., Gamble, A., Holiday, I, & Peele, G. (eds) Developments in British Politics 5. London: Macmillan Education UK. pp. 75-88. DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-25862-8_4
Owen, D. (2018) The New Media's Role in Politics. OpenMind. [cited 2021 May 27]. [Online] Available from: https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/articles/the-new-media-s-role-in-politics/
Parida, S.K. (2019) The Role of Media in International Politics: A Realpolitik Analysis. LXXX (4). pp. 651-657.
Faris, DM. (2015) New Media and Democracy in the Arab World. In: International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences. Elsevier. [cited 2021 May 26]. pp. 776-81. [Online] Available from: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/B9780080970868950852
Khondker, H.H. (2015) New Media, Political Mobilization, and the Arab Spring. In: International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences. Elsevier. [cited 2021 May 26]. pp. 798-804. [Online] Available from: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/B9780080970868641351
Parker, E. (2014) Social Media and the Hong Kong Protests. The New Yorker. Oct. 1. [cited 2021 May 26]; [Online] Available from: https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/social-media-hong-kong-protests
Shao, G. (2019) Social media has become a battleground in Hong Kong's protests. CNBC. [cited 2021 May 26]. [Online] Available from: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/social-media-has-become-a-battleground-in-hong-kongs-protests.html
Easton, D. (1979) A framework for political analysis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Aday, S. et al. (2010) Blogs and Bullets: New Media in Contentious Politics. United States Institute of Peace. [cited 2021 Jun 3]. [Online] Available from: https://www.usip.org/publications/2010/09/blogs-and-bullets-new-media-contentious-politics
Ruijgrok, K. (2016) From the web to the streets: internet and protests under authoritarian regimes. Democratization. Sep 8. pp. 1-23.
Rosen, J. (2011) Twitter Can't Topple Dictators. PressThink. [cited 2021 Jun 3]. [Online] Available from: https://pressthink.org/2011/02/the-twitter-cant-topple-dictators-article/
Kravets, D. (2011) What's Fueling Mideast Protests? It's More Than Twitter. Wired. Jan 27. [cited 2021 Jul 19]; [Online] Available from: https://www.wired.com/2011/01/social-media-oppression/
Rieff, D. (2011) The Reality of Revolution. The New Republic. Feb 14. [cited 2021 Jun 3]; [Online] Available from: https://newrepublic.com/article/83402/egypt-tunisia-democracy-twitter-economy
Mishra, G. (2009) The Irony of Iran's ‘Twitter Revolution'. Global Voices. [cited 2021 Jun 4]. [Online] Available from: https://globalvoices.org/2009/06/19/the-irony-of-irans-twitter-revolution/
Medvedeva, K. (2021) Desyat' mirovykh liderov sozdali Telegram-kanaly [Ten world leaders created Telegram channels]. Gazeta.ru. [cited 2021 Jul 23]. [Online] Available from: https://www.gazeta.ru/tech/news/2021/01/14/n_15486170.shtml
Telegram. (2021) Telegram FAQ. [cited 2021 Jul 22]. [Online] Available from: https://telegram.org/faq#q-what-is-telegram-what-do-i-do-here
Liubchenkova, N. (2020) Across Europe, rallies grow to support Belarus protests. Euronews. [cited 2021 Jun 19]. [Online] Available from: https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/13/in-pictures-across-europe-thousands-are-rallying-in-support-of-the-belarus-protests