Estimation of precision of determination of the Yarkovsky effect parameter based on real and model asteroid observations

The paper presents the results of assessment definition precision of the Yarkovsky effect parameter A ₂ for asteroids with small perihelion distances, known on epoch January 2021. It is shown that the observation interval has a significant effect on the precision of A ₂. As the interval increases, the root mean square error of the parameter decreases. For asteroids (3200) Phaethon and (137924) 2000 BD19 with a large observation interval, an experiment was carried out to reduce the number of real observations. A decrease of the interval and number of observations leads to a loss in the precision of the parameter being determined. Modeling observations based on real ones with an increase in their precision showed that the root mean square error of the A ₂ parameter decreases in proportion to the increase in the observation precision. The increase of interval due to model observations confirmed the conclusion about the inverse dependence of the A ₂ uncertainty from number and interval of observations.

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